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But both Democrats would lose to Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell by double digits if the November general election were held today, says the Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll. Still, McConnell’s job-approval rating remains below 50 percent, signaling a rare potential weakness for the Republican leader of the U.S. Senate.
Lunsford, a Louisville businessman who ran unsuccessfully last year for governor, leads Fischer, also a Louisville businessman, 43 percent to 23 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Five other Democrats in the race lag considerably.
Name recognition appears to be the major reason for Lunsford’s 20-point lead over Fischer, said Joe Gershtenson, director of Eastern Kentucky University’s Center for Kentucky History and Politics.
“Lunsford has been in two races for governor,” Gershtenson said. “This is Fischer’s first statewide race. It takes time to build up name recognition.”
The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic voters found that 47 percent of respondents have no opinion of Fischer, compared with 35 percent for Lunsford.
Lunsford outdrew Fischer among men, women, whites, blacks and various age groups. Fischer came closest to Lunsford among respondents in the 45-to-59 age group — 39 percent for Lunsford and 25 percent for Fischer.
The poll was conducted May 7-9 by Research 2000 of Olney, Md., and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Taking on McConnell
The Democratic primary winner will face McConnell in November. McConnell has token opposition from Williamsburg truck driver Daniel Essek in the GOP primary.
A companion survey of 600 likely Kentucky voters from all political parties shows McConnell beating Lunsford and Fischer by 12 points in the general election. His approval rating stands at 48 percent, while 44 percent disapproved. That compares to a 45 percent approval rate and a 46 percent disapproval rate in a poll last October.
Lunsford predicted his deficit against McConnell would diminish after the May 20 primary, which has featured contentious exchanges between Lunsford and Fischer. “You can’t get everybody to settle yet,” he said.
He smells vulnerability in McConnell’s approval rating, noting that McConnell has spent much of the past seven months running advertising touting his accomplishments and telling his personal story. “And he still can’t get to 50 percent,” Lunsford said.
Pollster Del Ali, president of Research 2000, agrees that McConnell is vulnerable, but others downplay the significance of the numbers.
All signs point to McConnell’s re-election, said Larry J. Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Lunsford is the leading candidate to challenge McConnell but his money won’t hurt McConnell because McConnell will have big money of his own,” Sabato said.
McConnell’s huge war chest, his position as Senate minority leader and his long incumbency are too much for any Democrat to overcome this year, Sabato said.
McConnell’s campaign manager, Justin Brasell, said only that “we look forward to a spirited debate with our eventual opponent during the general election.”
‘Commanding’ lead
Although time remains for the Democratic primary race to tighten, Ali called Lunsford’s 20-point lead “commanding.”
Fischer contends his campaign has gained momentum since the poll concluded on Friday, noting that he received endorsements from the editorial board of the Lexington Herald-Leader and others. He said Lunsford’s support “is thin.”
“It’s not based on passion,” he said.
Lunsford countered that he will be “all over the state” in the coming week acting as if “I’m two points behind with one day to go.”
The survey of likely Democratic voters also shows that primary voters think Lunsford is more likely to “bring needed change to Washington and Kentucky.” They favored Lunsford 46 percent to
Fischer’s 39 percent, with 15 percent not sure. Lunsford led Fischer among both sexes, races and age groups.
Lunsford got his lowest support on the change question among women, but edged out Fischer 43 percent to 41 percent.
Lunsford, who has been the target of Fischer TV ads regarding Lunsford’s past business practices and his 2003 support of Republican gubernatorial nominee Ernie Fletcher, held a 42 percent favorable rating to Fischer’s 37 percent among all respondents. Lunsford’s unfavorable rating was 23 percent, compared with Fischer’s 16 percent.
The five other Democrats in the race performed poorly. Prospect physician Michael Cassaro and perennial candidate David L. Williams of Glasgow each garnered support from 5 percent of likely voters, while Amazon.com warehouse employee James E. Rice of Campbellsville and Manchester attorney Kenneth Stepp each amassed 4 percent. Former U.S. Postal Service employee David Wylie of Harrodsburg got 2 percent. Nine percent favored others.
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Poll details: McConnell's job approval, race results