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2008 Election Poll      

Clinton creaming Obama in Ky.

By Ryan Alessi

ralessi@herald-leader.com

U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton enters the final week before Kentucky’s May 20 Democratic presidential primary with a commanding 27 percentage point lead over U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, a new poll shows.

She leads the Illinois senator 58 percent to 31 percent, with 11 percent uncommitted, according to a Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll of 500 probable Democratic voters.

But either Democratic candidate would trail the expected Republican nominee, John McCain, in the state by double digits if the November general election were held today, reveals a companion survey of 600 likely voters from all parties.

The results reinforce the expectation that Obama will lose Kentucky, even as he seems on the verge of securing the Democratic nomination.

Also, the numbers put into doubt whether Kentucky will be a battleground state in the fall. McCain leads Obama by 25 percentage points and Clinton by 12. This could bode well for McCain, since the state has backed the winning presidential candidate in every race since 1964.

“This is a tough state for a Democrat for president,” said Del Ali, president of thefirm Research 2000, which conducted the surveys. “If Obama’s sitting down with (his chief strategist) David Axelrod going over the electoral map in the fall, Kentucky isn’t part of the equation. I think with Hillary it could have been.”

The telephone survey of 500 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted between May 7 and May 9 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. The poll of 600 likely general election voters has a 4-point error margin.

Obama’s campaign has long downplayed expectations in the Bluegrass State, as well as in neighboring West Virginia, where Democrats go to the polls Tuesday.

“Sen. Obama is certainly the underdog in Kentucky,” said Obama campaign spokesman Clark Stevens. “President Clinton and Sen. Clinton have been campaigning here for two decades. And people in Kentucky are just now getting to know Sen. Obama.”

Stevens said Obama’s goal in these states is to personally deliver his message of change and to introduce himself to Kentuckians, which he will do at a Louisville rally Monday and at yet-to-be-announced stops Tuesday.

Ali said Obama could chip into Clinton’s sizable lead, especially if some Democrats are persuaded by his leads among superdelegates as well as the popular vote, the number of states won and among total delegates needed to win the nomination.

“I actually think this polling shows an improvement for Obama,” Ali said. “If we had polled prior to the (May 6) primary in Indiana and North Carolina, my guess is that Hillary would have been over 60 percent.”

Clinton, meanwhile, is banking her survival in the race on big returns in Kentucky, as well as on Tuesday in West Virginia and Puerto Rico on June 1. The goal, Clinton strategists have said, is to overtake Obama in the national popular vote.

Depending on voter turnout May 20, a 27-point advantage in Kentucky could yield Clinton at least a 100,000 net gain in votes to cut into Obama’s 710,000-vote lead.

But Clinton’s campaign expects the race in Kentucky to get closer in the last week.

“That margin is going to be difficult to maintain. It is going to tighten because we are being outspent,” said Clinton spokeswoman Jamie Radice. “Sen. Obama, in other states, typically outspends us 3-to-1 or 4-to-1.”

Clinton dominated Obama among most demographic groups in the poll, supported by about 60 percent of men, women and white Democrats.

Obama was the choice of 78 percent of blacks.

But because the black population makes up less than 8 percent of Kentucky’s 4.2 million people, Obama’s support from that group isn’t as significant as it was in North Carolina, where about 30 percent of Democratic voters were black.

Clinton also received support from a majority in every age group.

Despite the hard-fought primary, a majority of Democrats still viewed both contenders positively. About 33 percent had unfavorable opinions of Clinton, compared with 36 percent for Obama.

One of the biggest knocks against Clinton, said some Kentucky Democrats, was that she couldn’t represent change.

“If Hillary is elected that would mean the same two families have controlled the White House for 30 years,” said Scott Zumwalt, a 36-year-old Obama supporter from Lexington. “If it were a business, it would be a monopoly.” Zumwalt said Obama “seems so well-qualified and has so much to say.”

Many Kentucky Clinton-backers, however, questioned Obama’s experience and remarks by his retired pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.

“He’s not seasoned,” Miriam Picconi of Lexington said of Obama. She said Obama showed poor judgment by remaining in Wright’s congregation for as long as he did.

Among demographic groups, Obama performed best with the 18-29 crowd. Still, only 37 percent of those youngest Democrats picked him.

In the general election poll, McCain also ran ahead of Obama in each age bracket — including 18-29 year olds. McCain led 51 percent to 37 percent, which is the same margin Clinton held over Obama with that group.

“This is the only state so far where that holds true,” said Ali, who has polled across the country during this race.

Clinton’s campaign touted the poll results as confirmation of one of her key messages.

“It shows what we’ve been saying all along, which is that Sen. Clinton would match up better against Sen. McCain,” Radice said.

Clinton trailed McCain 53 to 41 percent, with 6 percent undecided, among the 600 general election voters. Obama’s deficit against McCain was twice that — 58 to 33 percent, with 9 percent unsure.

That gives McCain a good starting point, Ali said.

“White, rural voters are not going to vote for an African-American in Kentucky over a white, male conservative,” Ali said.

Reach Ryan Alessi in the Herald-Leader Frankfort bureau at (859) 231-1303 or 1-800-950-6397, Ext. 1303.